GDP decline in recessionsDR. BILL CONERLY BASED ON DATA FROM NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Don’t expect the economy to crash in 2019, but be prepared for a possible recession.
Plenty of people are asking about the chance of a crash, which I interpret as a pretty severe recession, like 2008-09. The primary trigger of a full-blown crash would be a financial crisis, when many companies, consumers and other entities have borrowed short to fund long-term assets which start looking dodgy. I don’t think that’s in the cards.
Household finances are improving. Over the last four quarters, their real estate equity is up 10.0%, financial assets up 8.0%, debt up only 3.4%, for a gain in net worth of 8.2%, based on Federal Reserve data.…continue reading the rest of this post: Will The Economy Crash In 2019?