Home Prices Outpacing Wages in 80 Percent of the U.S. Housing Markets

IRVINE, Calif. – Jan. 10, 2019 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, today released its 2019 Rental Affordability Report, which shows that renting a three-bedroom property is more affordable than buying a median-priced home in 442 of 755 U.S. counties analyzed for the report — 59 percent.

Although several housing market experts anticipate the market slowing down in 2019, LendingTree believes that there is no cause for alarm.

In its 2019 forecast, LendingTree predicts slower sales will give rise to an increase of inventory, which could benefit lenders and homeowners.  

“The medium- and long-term prospects for housing are good because demographics are going to continue to support demand,” LendingTree Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze writes. “With a slower price appreciation, incomes have a chance to catch up. With slower sales, inventory has an opportunity to normalize. A slowdown in 2019 creates a healthier housing market going forward.”

This should be welcomed news to a market that is already grappling with concerns of affordability and inventory.

Homebuyers are increasingly opting for nontraditional mortgages – Opens a New Window.which helped precipitate the housing crisis about one decade ago – potentially foreshadowing trouble as high prices continue to weigh on housing affordability.

Throughout the first three quarters of last year, unconventional mortgages – those that don’t require borrowers to show typical income or other asset verifying documentation – rose 24 percent to $34 billion, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. While unconventional mortgages accounted for just 3 percent of overall originations during that period – traditional mortgage loans declined.

Unconventional mortgages are intended to help people with unusual circumstances, such as no consistent salary, get a home loan. However, they are considered more risky because they require borrowers to show less, or even no, documentation – which can lead to deceitful practices. These loans can allow borrowers or lenders to overstate assets to help secure a larger mortgage. A scenario whereby borrowers secured larger mortgages than their means allowed for partially precipitated the 2007 financial crisis

Bill ConerlyContributorLeadership StrategyI connect the dots between the economy … and business!

GDP decline in recessionsDR. BILL CONERLY BASED ON DATA FROM NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Don’t expect the economy to crash in 2019, but be prepared for a possible recession.

Plenty of people are asking about the chance of a crash, which I interpret as a pretty severe recession, like 2008-09. The primary trigger of a full-blown crash would be a financial crisis, when many companies, consumers and other entities have borrowed short to fund long-term assets which start looking dodgy. I don’t think that’s in the cards.

Household finances are improving. Over the last four quarters, their real estate equity is up 10.0%, financial assets up 8.0%, debt up only 3.4%, for a gain in net worth of 8.2%, based on Federal Reserve data.

FICO announced its new credit score model earlier this week, but will it revolutionize the lending industry, or fall through the cracks?

While time may be the only true way to tell the answer to that question, HousingWire spoke to FICO executives in order to determine the vision and capabilities of the new model, UltraFICO.

As we previously reported, UltraFICO has the potential to increase the FICO score for millions of consumers, that is, if they opt in. The new model depends on consumers to “build their own credit score,” and give permission for access to their bank records.

Once this permission is given, FICO, Experian and Finicity team up to provide a score that looks not just at the applicant’s credit file, but also how they manage their personal finances.

FICO explained that this could be a tool to increase homeownership by boosting the score of applicants with thin files, those who have previous marks against them but are working to improve their score or even those who are credit invisible (consumers who have no credit file whatsoever.)

A few weeks ago, we cautioned both lenders and appraisers that with decreased volume, AMCs would be under financial stress. In spite of regulatory guidance to the contrary, lenders still believed they could outsource all risk to their third parties. The guidance has been clear: the use of third parties actually increases risk, not decreases it.

Just for a refresher, here is the OCC Bulletin that can be used as the basis for writing your policies. 

It would appear that the mere act of AMC registration at the state level has created a class of AMCs that, in some cases, are not real businesses. Minimum AMC requirements to register has proffered an air of legitimacy. And when States don’t audit for fundamental business activities, the public trust is violated.

The next 12 months are going to be messy.

Consumers are going to be trapped in many instances where appraisers will refuse to deliver reports based on past due invoices. Appraisers will be stuck once again for lack of third party oversight, mostly by nonbank lenders, and will be left with millions of dollars in unpaid invoices. Lenders lacking in basic understanding of compliance will find themselves at the center of the wrath of the blogosphere. That is headline risk. Tangible losses will occur when appraisers file complaints with state lending regulators against the lenders and also seek judgments in their local courts. My advice to lenders is to get out early on these issues and pay appraisers promptly.

Appraisers are in a very tough position. It is extremely difficult for appraisers to be in a position to properly vet the AMCs with whom they have no prior history. Proceed with caution. Look at the type of clients the AMC has, how long they have been in business, their payment history with others, and the terms and conditions of their payment schedules.

Be careful, folks.